When you bet NFL preseason probabilities, are tendencies useful? What tendencies could be worth taking a look at for NFL preseason wagering?
As you prepare to bet preseason games for 2010, here are some statistics in sports forecasting to consider.
NFL preseason odds start with the Hall of Fame Game which is an additional game for both Dallas and Cincinnati. Every other NFL squad will play four while they will play 5 preseason competitions. The Hall of Fame Game is a neutral site match so plenty of trends do not apply to that match. The first week of the preseason is where it is possible to begin taking a look at home and away tendencies.
You would feel that home teams will succeed more usually versus the NFL preseason odds than road teams, yet you would be wrong in that supposition. Home teams in fact don’t win more often than road teams. Actually, when laying points in NFL preseason wagering, they’re not a solid bet in any way. You can close to do well enough wagering against home faves to make money on a consistent basis in the preseason. Over the past 10 years, road long shots are at about 54% against the spread. When you examine this number a little further another pattern comes into play. Many times when you think of a big home favorite you believe they do very well. In the preseason, that is not the situation. Big preseason home faves are a very negative bet against the point spread. They lose versus the number about 60% of the time. In the preseason the starters hardly ever play the whole game so covering a major number is difficult to do.
How about taking a team at home when they are an underdog in the preseason? This is 1 trend that has worked over the past ten years and 1 that makes sense. Squads have been strong vs the point spread, winning over 60% of the time, when the squad is receiving points at home in the preseason. It genuinely has not mattered how many points a squad is gaining at home. Minor home dogs and huge home dogs have done every bit as well. Since many times in the preseason the points are the way to go, this adds up. Home teams have been a profitable bet in the preseason as long shots, although they don’t do well as faves.
Most NFL squads will play in back-to-back road games sooner or later throughout the year, and regularly 2 or 3 times. Sometimes you’ll even see a squad play 3 road games back to back, specifically if there’s conflicting use of the stadium, such as if it is shared with a baseball squad. When that happens, you should look at the previous road game to determine how to bet on the next. If a team lost on the road in its last competition, it is got a much better than average chance to win the next 1.
It is not a good idea to thoughtlessly wager on trends or angles, but you don’t want to ignore them completely either. When you bet on road games this season, take these facts into account.